The impact of Sino-US trade war on China's photovoltaic energy industry and power industry
The recent Sino-US trade friction has drawn worldwide attention. Why did this friction happen? What is included? What impact will China's energy industry and electricity demand have? The cause of Sino-US trade friction The United States has provoked Sino-US trade frictions, with both strategic and tactical considerations. In terms of strategy, the US taxation on China not only covers low-end and mid-end manufacturing products, but also points to the main planned developments in China Manufacturing 2025, including aviation, new energy vehicles, new materials and other products. The high-tech industry is trying to set obstacles to China's science and technology and economic development. Its direct purpose is to force China to further open its market to the United States on the grounds of serious Sino-US trade imbalances. The deep-rooted purpose is to try to re-enact the US-Japan trade war in the 1980s. To curb China's revival; at the tactical level, 2018 is the mid-term election year of the US Congress. In November, the United States will usher in the midterm elections. May is the intensive voting period for the midterm elections. Trump intends to play the "trade protection card" to canvass voters. In order to continue to maintain the Republican Party's dominant position in the Senate and the House of Representatives and strive for future re-election. The main content of Sino-US trade friction The US government announced on January 23 this year that it will impose temporary tariffs on imported solar cells and solar panels as well as large domestic washing machines. On March 8, it announced that it will impose heavy taxes of 25% and 10% on imported steel and aluminum, respectively. On April 3, the United States intends to import 1,333 items from China including aerospace, information technology, machinery industry, transportation equipment, robotics, construction machinery, agricultural equipment, electronic products, pharmaceutical and biological industries (involving 2017 in the United States). Imports from China amounted to approximately US$50 billion. A 25% tariff was imposed and Chinese companies were restricted from investing in the United States. According to the US government's legal procedures, the publication of the list does not mean that the United States will immediately impose tariffs on these goods in China. It is necessary to hold a public hearing before finalizing the final list of tariffs. There is a 60-day window before the tariff on Chinese goods comes into effect, so tariffs on these Chinese goods will not begin to be imposed until June. As a counterattack, China announced on April 4th the "Notice on Adding Tariffs to Certain Imported Goods Originating in the United States", and intends to import 106 kinds of imported products from soybeans, automobiles, airplanes and chemicals imported from the United States. In 2017, China imported about US$50 billion from the United States, and imposed a 25% tariff. The implementation date of China's tariff increase will be based on the US government's implementation of tariffs on Chinese goods, which will be announced separately by the State Council Tariff Commission. The Impact of Sino-US Trade Friction on China's Economy Sino-US trade frictions may be resolved through consultation and negotiation, and the possibility of large-scale trade wars is unlikely. Judging from the 301 survey that China has encountered in history, the results are almost always through consultations and negotiations, and finally reach an agreement or compromise, and ultimately fewer retaliatory measures. In the history of the United States, there were five 301 clauses applied to China. In April 1991, June 1994, and April 1996, the United States used special 301 clauses to conduct special 301 investigations on Chinese intellectual property rights (9, 8, and 2 months respectively), and finally reached three through negotiation. Intellectual property agreement. In addition to the IPR investigation, the United States also launched a 301 survey on market access for China in October 1991 for a period of 12 months, mainly targeting China’s unfair barriers to the entry of US goods into the Chinese market. . In October 2010, the United States launched a 301 investigation on China's clean energy policy measures, and finally reached a consensus through negotiations. In this round of trade friction, the core appeal of the United States lies in reversing the trade deficit, opening up Chinese market access, and promoting intellectual property protection. The two sides are still expected to resolve disputes through consultation. The trade surplus has gradually declined in the Chinese economy, and China's foreign trade has been diversified. From 2011 to 2016, the trade surplus of China's goods and services accounted for an average of 2.6% of GDP, which was within 4% of the internationally recognized reasonable level, indicating that China's trade imbalance has improved significantly. China's export trade structure has been continuously optimized. Under the promotion of the structural reform of the supply side and the implementation of the “One Belt, One Road†initiative, China’s foreign trade development has been continuously optimized and improved in terms of the structure of import and export trade, the structure of major products, the diversified structure of the market, and the structure of trade entities. . In recent years, China has steadily promoted supply-side structural reforms, and economic growth has strong endogenous power. China will fully implement the spirit of the 19th Party Congress, adhere to the overall requirements of "high-quality development", adhere to the supply-side structural reform as the main line, and lay a good "three major battles" to guide and stabilize expectations and ensure sustained and healthy economic development. The implementation of a series of major strategies, such as innovation-driven development, rural revitalization, regional coordinated development, and military-civilian integration, will unleash tremendous development potential. The supply-side structural reforms have been promoted in depth, constantly stimulating market vitality, and will promote economic development quality change, efficiency change, and power change, improve total factor productivity, and promote economic stability. A new round of reform and opening up will continue to expand the opening of manufacturing and service industries. Although US trade friction may have a certain negative impact on China's exports and the economy, the pace of China's economic reforms and structural adjustment will not change. China will use external pressure to promote domestic economic restructuring and foster new economic growth points. The impact of Sino-US trade friction on the energy industry Sino-US trade friction has limited impact on China's photovoltaic and traditional energy industries. Sino-US trade friction has a direct impact on China's PV industry. In 2018, the United States increased tariffs on China's PV products, resulting in a decline in the number of Chinese PV products exported to the United States. Coupled with the inventory backlog in the second half of 2017, the number of PV orders exported to the United States in 2018 has decreased significantly. However, the reduction in orders from exporting to the United States has limited impact on China's PV industry: on the one hand, in the global PV market of around 100 GW, the Chinese market accounts for about 50% to 60% of the market. Even if the capacity is not exported to the US, most of them can On the other hand, Chinese PV companies have already set their sights on Latin America, Africa, the Middle East and other regions that have not set limits on China's PV industry. The development of emerging markets can replace PV exports to the US to some extent. The impact of Sino-US trade friction on demand for electricity Sino-US trade friction has little impact on China's electricity demand. The products and industries in which the United States imposes tariffs on China mainly involve steel, aluminum, photovoltaics and high-tech products. In 2017, China exported 1.18 million tons of US steel, accounting for 1.6% of China's total steel exports (75.43 million), accounting for 0.1% of China's steel output (1.05 billion tons); China's exports to US aluminum in 2017 A total of 1.03 million tons of materials, accounting for 15% of China's total export of aluminum materials (6.34 million tons), accounting for 1.8% of China's aluminum production (53.82 million tons of electrolytic aluminum); total exports of solar cells and photovoltaic modules in China in 2017 Up to 13.11 billion US dollars, the photovoltaic products exported to the United States accounted for 1.2% of the total output value of China's photovoltaic industry; in 2017, China's high-tech products exported to the United States accounted for 5.5% of the total output value of China's high-tech products. From this point of view, Sino-US trade frictions involve industrial products in the field, which account for a lower proportion of the total output value of the industry. Considering China’s substitution effect on US exports along the “Belt and Road†countries, Sino-US trade frictions are related to the fields involved. The output and electricity demand have little impact. in conclusion In summary, there is still a high degree of uncertainty about the breadth and duration of future trade frictions. The potential negative impact of trade friction on the economy cannot be ignored, but the downward pressure on the economy should not be over-interpreted and exaggerated. While the prospects for political game are still unclear, we should pay more attention to the relatively short-term factors, such as the stable operation of economic fundamentals, the steady advancement of various reforms, and the strong endogenous driving force for economic growth. Under this circumstance, the smooth operation of the economy will support the steady growth of energy and electricity demand. SHENZHEN CHONDEKUAI TECHNOLOGY CO.LTD , http://www.siheyidz.com
Sino-US trade friction has an indirect impact on China's traditional energy industry, which may cause some industries to decline in output growth, which has a certain negative impact on energy demand, but the overall impact is limited: on the one hand, although the US trade protection measures against China The output growth rate of industries such as motor vehicles and spare parts, ferrous metal smelting, non-ferrous metals, electronic equipment manufacturing, and machinery and equipment manufacturing will decline, but China's counter-measures will promote agriculture, livestock and meat products, food processing industry, and light industry. The output of industries such as chemical rubber and plastic products has increased, thus offsetting some of the negative impacts; on the other hand, Chinese industrial enterprises can enhance their core competitiveness and ability to withstand risks through a global operation model, avoiding simplification or excessive dependence. Large risks from a single market.